[Image: Paul Keating, Prime Minister of Australia 1991 – 1996, pic source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade website – www.dfat.gov.au]

Have you seen the headline across the media in the last couple of days: “House sales tumble to levels not seen since Keating as prices fall”. 

20% fall in the volume of property sales; it can’t be true and what has Paul Keating got to do with it?

But the source of the news is a reputable economist at a reputable big bank, “UBS senior economist George Tharenou said the number of home sales had now fallen by 20 per cent over the past year to its lowest level since early 1996.”

The last time Legal Practice Intelligence examined the statistics, property transfers were down by around 13% to 15%, based on NSW data. We decided to have another look at the data. Let’s prove UBS wrong and make them stop annoying Paul Keating.  

So we checked NSW property transfers for the three months to April 2019. Our conclusion? It is true! Property transfers were down by exactly 20% compared to the equivalent period 12 months ago. 

This is for NSW and it is certainly not this much down for Australia as a whole.

Legal Practice Intelligence is predicting (again) that now is the bottom of the current cycle for conveyancing volumes. We expect to get back up to Kevin Rudd in the foreseeable future but to get to Malcolm Turnbull will have to wait until the next price boom.