While two in three legal and financial professionals on Australia’s property frontline either agree or are not yet certain, Brisbane’s slower-burning market could be on its way to becoming the next Melbourne or Sydney.
That’s what was determined from a recent survey conducted by GlobalX, where just a third (32.8 per cent) of conveyancers, legal personnel and financial advisers emphatically disagreed with the proposition.
GlobalX’s Rafe Berding said that while only 16.8 per cent were outright certain Brisbane was on the path to challenge Melbourne or Sydney, just over half the sample of 119 professionals (50.4 per cent) were unsure of whether it could be achieved, leaving the door ajar to the possibility.
“Interestingly, though, those who took time to explain their reasoning behind their choice showed some strongly negative views, especially from those based in other states,” Mr Berding said.
“So, while such an outcome is clearly still some way off, there is a chance that Brisbane’s southern professionals are underestimating the growth potential of the Brisbane market. And that could give Brisbane property developers, the local real estate industry, and investors, as well as both buyers and sellers, some breathing room but, we suspect, only in the short-term.”
Mr Berding said another factor to consider was where the population was moving to and from.
“According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, over the decade to June 2016, Queensland has been the only state to maintain annual net interstate migration gains, averaging growth of 11,347 individuals,” Mr Berding said.
“While it has grown strongly this past year, Victoria’s only gained, on average, 4,738 individuals a year over that period, while NSW fell by an average of 14,595 individuals every year.
“Certainly, if you look at the most recent migration figures released by the ABS, for 2015-16, Brisbane has had has highest net internal migration (from within the state), ahead of Melbourne and Hobart. Sydney was the biggest loser in this regard.
“Brisbane also has its highest net migration gains in the age ranges of 0-14, 15-24 and 25-44, which tends to suggest younger buyers, first-time buyers and families with young children are continuing to head north rather than take on the larger mortgages required in either Melbourne or Sydney.
“And, on Brisbane’s outskirts, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and the southern section of Moreton Bay occupy three of the top five gaining non-metro locations, while Sydney’s Inner South West and Parramatta occupy the top two spots on the list of losses.
“So, we believe the swing towards agreeing with the possibility – that Brisbane’s property market will eventually reach the heights of Melbourne and Sydney – is on and that’s reflected in our survey’s responses.
“And, as any investor will tell you, it’s far preferable to have steady, sustainable growth than wild swings that create boom-and-bust cycles.”